Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BOS: 54.1%

PHI: 45.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.31

PHI: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	26	23	3	88.5%	2.32	0	-0.68
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	31	27	4	87.1%	3.22	2	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	PHI
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	14	1	0.91
1	PHI	9	0	0.82
2	BOS	12	0	0.79
2	PHI	16	0	0.76
3	BOS	16	1	1.46
3	PHI	12	0	0.59
4	BOS	1	0	0.07
4	PHI	1	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1