Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 44.5%

CAR: 55.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.74

CAR: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	31	28	3	90.3%	2.42	1	-0.58
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	25	21	4	84.0%	2.74	2	-1.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 59% • NYI at home vs CAR: 4-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	NYI 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	NYI
2026-04-04	CAR 4 - 3 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-10-30	CAR 6 - 2 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-03-30	CAR 6 - 4 NYI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-25	NYI 3 - 2 CAR	NYI	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	13	1	0.80
1	CAR	19	0	0.69
2	NYI	22	1	1.68
2	CAR	6	1	0.51
3	NYI	4	0	0.26
3	CAR	25	0	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4