Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

MTL: 46.1%

WSH: 53.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.96

WSH: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	35	31	4	88.6%	3.81	6	-0.19
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	22	2	91.7%	2.54	1	0.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	13	1	0.89
1	WSH	16	2	1.32
2	MTL	9	0	0.48
2	WSH	14	1	0.65
3	MTL	13	0	1.18
3	WSH	24	3	1.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2