Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-07 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PIT: 56.5%

TOR: 43.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.32

TOR: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	9	0	0.39
1	TOR	17	1	1.23
2	PIT	14	0	0.73
2	TOR	14	0	0.80
3	PIT	19	2	2.62
3	TOR	15	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1