Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2024-12-08 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

VAN: 35.6%

TBL: 64.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.72

TBL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 41%

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	33	29	4	87.9%	4.86	5	0.86
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	23	2	92.0%	2.82	3	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	VAN 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-16	TBL 2 - 6 VAN	VAN	TBL
2024-12-08	VAN 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-15	TBL 4 - 1 VAN	TBL	TBL
2023-12-12	VAN 4 - 1 TBL	VAN	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	12	0	0.59
1	TBL	9	1	0.84
2	VAN	9	0	0.35
2	TBL	23	2	2.20
3	VAN	17	3	1.88
3	TBL	12	2	1.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.7 - 3.0