Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2024-12-08 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 50.5%
TBL: 49.5%
Expected Goals
VAN: 2.21
TBL: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 7-19-4 | 0.876 SV% | 3.67 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | VAN | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.793 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.933 | — |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VAN at home vs TBL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | TBL 2 - 6 VAN | VAN | TBL |
| 2024-12-08 | VAN 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | VAN |
| 2024-10-15 | TBL 4 - 1 VAN | TBL | TBL |
| 2023-12-12 | VAN 4 - 1 TBL | VAN | VAN |
| 2023-10-19 | TBL 4 - 3 VAN | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:08 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 04:40 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 06:29 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:52 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 16:04 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:42 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.2 - 3.3