Utah Hockey Club at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-12-08 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 56.0%

UTA: 44.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.13

UTA: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

UTA

J. Stauber

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	21	4	84.0%	2.98	1	-1.02
UTA	J. Stauber	24	22	2	91.7%	3.19	3	1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs UTA: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PHI 0 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-21	UTA 5 - 4 PHI	UTA	UTA
2025-02-04	UTA 3 - 2 PHI	UTA	PHI
2024-12-08	PHI 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	1	1.25
1	UTA	20	0	1.25
2	PHI	13	2	1.22
2	UTA	15	0	0.93
3	PHI	18	0	0.72
3	UTA	8	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 4 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0