Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2024-12-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 64.6%

DET: 35.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.85

DET: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	James Reimer	33	26	7	78.8%	5.28	4	-1.72
DET	Ville Husso	24	18	6	75.0%	3.32	1	-2.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • BUF at home vs DET: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	DET
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	BUF
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.68
1	DET	17	0	1.10
2	BUF	14	0	1.04
2	DET	17	0	0.74
3	BUF	8	0	0.45
3	DET	15	1	1.32
4	BUF	1	0	0.11
4	DET	1	1	0.21
5	BUF	3	1	1.03
5	DET	3	2	1.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0