Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-09 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 62.5%
DET: 37.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.74
DET: 2.75
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
| Stat | BUF | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.893 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.887 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.845 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.97 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs DET: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | DET 4 - 5 BUF | BUF | DET |
| 2025-10-22 | BUF 4 - 2 DET | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-12 | DET 7 - 3 BUF | DET | DET |
| 2024-12-09 | BUF 5 - 6 DET | DET | BUF |
| 2024-11-02 | DET 2 - 1 BUF | DET | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:38 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 04:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 04:46 | DET | Goal |
| 1 | 10:25 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 15:26 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 01:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 02:26 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 09:46 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 10:27 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 15:42 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.7 - 2.8