Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-09 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 62.5%
DET: 37.5%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.84
DET: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 46%
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs DET: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | BUF 2 - 5 DET | DET | BUF |
| 2025-11-15 | DET 4 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-22 | BUF 4 - 2 DET | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-03-12 | DET 7 - 3 BUF | DET | BUF |
| 2024-12-09 | BUF 5 - 6 DET | DET | BUF |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 12 | 0 | 0.68 |
| 1 | DET | 17 | 0 | 1.10 |
| 2 | BUF | 14 | 0 | 1.04 |
| 2 | DET | 17 | 0 | 0.74 |
| 3 | BUF | 8 | 0 | 0.45 |
| 3 | DET | 15 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 4 | BUF | 1 | 0 | 0.11 |
| 4 | DET | 1 | 1 | 0.21 |
| 5 | BUF | 3 | 1 | 1.03 |
| 5 | DET | 3 | 2 | 1.91 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Detroit Red Wings
Expected: 3.8 - 2.9
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