Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-09 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

MTL: 54.4%

ANA: 45.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.77

ANA: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	29	27	2	93.1%	4.44	2	2.44
ANA	Lukas Dostal	23	19	4	82.6%	4.23	4	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs ANA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MTL 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	MTL
2026-03-06	ANA 6 - 5 MTL	ANA	MTL
2025-02-02	ANA 3 - 2 MTL	ANA	MTL
2024-12-09	MTL 3 - 2 ANA	MTL	MTL
2024-02-13	MTL 5 - 0 ANA	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	1	0.71
1	ANA	15	0	1.04
2	MTL	14	1	1.20
2	ANA	19	1	1.95
3	MTL	12	0	0.54
3	ANA	9	1	0.92
4	MTL	1	0	0.06
4	ANA	5	0	0.36
5	MTL	2	2	1.72
5	ANA	2	0	0.15

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9