Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2024-12-10 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 57.6%
TOR: 42.4%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.07
TOR: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.899 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.897 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • NJD at home vs TOR: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | TOR 4 - 0 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-10-21 | TOR 2 - 5 NJD | NJD | TOR |
| 2025-01-16 | TOR 4 - 3 NJD | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-10 | NJD 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NJD |
| 2024-10-10 | NJD 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 07:16 | NJD | Goal |
| 3 | 10:42 | NJD | Goal |
| 4 | 02:51 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8