Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-10 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

PIT: 45.7%

COL: 54.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.12

COL: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	21	6	77.8%	3.50	4	-2.50
COL	Scott Wedgewood	27	25	2	92.6%	2.78	1	0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	0	0.56
1	COL	13	1	0.85
2	PIT	10	1	0.75
2	COL	8	0	0.71
3	PIT	20	0	1.47
3	COL	10	3	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4