Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-12-10 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 52.5%

PHI: 47.5%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.51

PHI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	25	20	5	80.0%	2.64	1	-2.36
PHI	Samuel Ersson	18	15	3	83.3%	1.63	0	-1.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CBJ at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	7	0	0.30
1	PHI	12	1	0.70
2	CBJ	11	0	0.60
2	PHI	20	0	1.49
3	CBJ	11	0	0.73
3	PHI	9	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0