New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-11 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.9%
NYR: 40.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.75
NYR: 3.37
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 60%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • BUF at home vs NYR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | NYR 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYR |
| 2025-10-09 | BUF 0 - 4 NYR | NYR | BUF |
| 2025-02-22 | BUF 8 - 2 NYR | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-11 | BUF 2 - 3 NYR | NYR | BUF |
| 2024-11-07 | NYR 1 - 6 BUF | BUF | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:01 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:29 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 15:09 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:58 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:22 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.1
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.7 - 3.4