New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2024-12-11 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 56.9%
NYR: 43.1%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.18
NYR: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
| Stat | BUF | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.937 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • BUF at home vs NYR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | NYR 3 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-08 | NYR 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-09 | BUF 0 - 4 NYR | NYR | BUF |
| 2025-02-22 | BUF 8 - 2 NYR | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-11 | BUF 2 - 3 NYR | NYR | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:01 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:29 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 15:09 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 17:58 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:22 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 3 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1
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