Anaheim Ducks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2024-12-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Win Probability

OTT: 74.4%

ANA: 25.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 4.23

ANA: 2.37

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	31	1	96.9%	1.99	0	0.99
ANA	John Gibson	34	29	5	85.3%	3.92	4	-1.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • OTT at home vs ANA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	OTT 2 - 0 ANA	OTT	OTT
2025-11-20	ANA 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-12-11	OTT 5 - 1 ANA	OTT	OTT
2024-12-01	ANA 4 - 3 OTT	ANA	OTT
2024-03-06	ANA 2 - 1 OTT	ANA	ANA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	21	3	2.26
1	ANA	14	0	0.39
2	OTT	13	0	0.81
2	ANA	18	0	0.96
3	OTT	11	1	0.85
3	ANA	8	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 1 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 4.2 - 2.4