Pittsburgh Penguins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 9 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MTL: 43.3%

PIT: 56.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.10

PIT: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	33	24	9	72.7%	3.84	3	-5.16
PIT	Tristan Jarry	23	21	2	91.3%	2.55	3	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs PIT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	PIT 4 - 3 MTL	PIT	PIT
2025-12-20	MTL 4 - 0 PIT	MTL	PIT
2025-12-11	PIT 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	PIT
2024-12-12	MTL 2 - 9 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-11-02	PIT 3 - 1 MTL	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	8	0	0.52
1	PIT	12	1	0.94
2	MTL	15	1	1.23
2	PIT	14	0	0.69
3	MTL	9	2	0.81
3	PIT	20	2	2.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 9 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2