Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Win Probability

PHI: 63.5%

DET: 36.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.31

DET: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 36%

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	26	25	1	96.2%	2.33	0	1.33
DET	Cam Talbot	36	32	4	88.9%	3.78	3	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PHI at home vs DET: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	15	0	0.50
1	DET	9	0	0.66
2	PHI	22	0	1.49
2	DET	9	0	0.77
3	PHI	8	3	1.78
3	DET	16	0	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 4 - 1 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 2.5