Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

NYI: 63.2%

CHI: 36.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.40

CHI: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	26	4	86.7%	2.25	1	-1.75
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	21	16	5	76.2%	1.79	1	-3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	NYI 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	NYI
2025-12-30	CHI 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2024-12-15	CHI 5 - 3 NYI	CHI	NYI
2024-12-12	NYI 5 - 4 CHI	NYI	NYI
2024-04-02	NYI 2 - 1 CHI	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	10	0	0.67
1	CHI	16	1	0.94
2	NYI	13	0	0.32
2	CHI	9	0	0.42
3	NYI	12	1	0.80
3	CHI	17	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8