San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 54.3%

SJS: 45.7%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.14

SJS: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	31	27	4	87.1%	2.25	3	-1.75
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	20	17	3	85.0%	3.02	2	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • STL at home vs SJS: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	STL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	STL
2026-03-30	SJS 5 - 4 STL	SJS	STL
2026-03-26	STL 2 - 1 SJS	STL	STL
2026-03-06	SJS 2 - 3 STL	STL	STL
2024-12-12	STL 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	7	0	0.76
1	SJS	16	1	0.77
2	STL	10	0	0.73
2	SJS	11	2	1.11
3	STL	13	2	1.53
3	SJS	7	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1