Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2024-12-12 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 51.2%
VGK: 48.8%
Expected Goals
WPG: 2.42
VGK: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | WPG | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 29% • WPG at home vs VGK: 0-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-06 | WPG 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | WPG |
| 2025-04-03 | VGK 0 - 4 WPG | WPG | VGK |
| 2024-12-12 | WPG 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | WPG |
| 2024-11-29 | VGK 4 - 3 WPG | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-28 | WPG 1 - 4 VGK | VGK | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:27 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 18:11 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 10:55 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 04:34 | WPG | Goal |
| 4 | 03:47 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.4 - 3.2