Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

WPG: 39.3%

VGK: 60.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.81

VGK: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	33	3	91.7%	3.04	1	0.04
VGK	Adin Hill	20	18	2	90.0%	1.22	0	-0.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	VGK 6 - 2 WPG	VGK	VGK
2026-03-24	WPG 4 - 1 VGK	WPG	VGK
2026-01-06	WPG 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	WPG
2025-04-03	VGK 0 - 4 WPG	WPG	VGK
2024-12-12	WPG 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	8	0	0.34
1	VGK	18	1	1.01
2	WPG	9	0	0.29
2	VGK	17	0	0.82
3	WPG	10	0	0.44
3	VGK	21	0	0.99
4	WPG	2	0	0.16
4	VGK	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2