Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2024-12-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 48.3%
TBL: 51.7%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.29
TBL: 3.39
Total Goals
Median: 7.6
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 67%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | CGY | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.250 | 0.969 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | CGY 4 - 3 TBL | CGY | TBL |
| 2025-11-26 | TBL 5 - 1 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-02-27 | TBL 3 - 0 CGY | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-12 | CGY 3 - 8 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-07 | TBL 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:42 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 18:40 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 06:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:14 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 14:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 00:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:34 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:21 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 51.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 3.4
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