Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-12 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 51.2%

TBL: 48.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.41

TBL: 4.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	26	18	8	69.2%	3.57	4	-4.43
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	22	19	3	86.4%	1.43	1	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs TBL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	TBL
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	12	0	0.40
1	TBL	14	1	0.85
2	CGY	12	0	0.50
2	TBL	12	2	1.59
3	CGY	10	1	0.53
3	TBL	14	1	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 4.4