Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2024-12-13 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 65.2%

OTT: 34.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.20

OTT: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 43%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.93	2	-0.07
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	32	0	100.0%	2.71	1	2.71

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 77% • CAR at home vs OTT: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	1	1.12
1	OTT	8	0	0.53
2	CAR	14	0	0.73
2	OTT	13	0	0.89
3	CAR	21	0	0.86
3	OTT	6	2	1.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9