Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.4%

TOR: 53.6%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.08

TOR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Ville Husso	25	23	2	92.0%	2.69	0	0.69
TOR	Joseph Woll	26	22	4	84.6%	4.65	6	0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 74% • DET at home vs TOR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.97
1	TOR	15	0	0.74
2	DET	17	3	1.61
2	TOR	21	0	1.24
3	DET	10	3	2.06
3	TOR	8	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0