Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

WSH: 62.9%

BUF: 37.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.63

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	21	19	2	90.5%	2.14	0	0.14
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	31	27	4	87.1%	4.55	3	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • WSH at home vs BUF: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	WSH 6 - 2 BUF	WSH	BUF
2026-03-12	BUF 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	BUF
2025-11-01	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	BUF
2025-03-30	WSH 5 - 8 BUF	BUF	WSH
2025-01-06	BUF 4 - 3 WSH	BUF	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	17	0	1.26
1	BUF	15	0	0.54
2	WSH	19	0	1.21
2	BUF	14	0	1.29
3	WSH	12	3	2.09
3	BUF	10	0	0.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0