Florida Panthers at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-14 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 42.2%

FLA: 57.8%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.20

FLA: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	32	32	0	100.0%	2.44	1	2.44
FLA	Spencer Knight	27	24	3	88.9%	1.90	0	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CGY at home vs FLA: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	FLA
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	10	0	0.49
1	FLA	13	1	0.67
2	CGY	12	0	0.76
2	FLA	19	0	0.94
3	CGY	15	0	0.65
3	FLA	18	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 0 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2