Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-15 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 45.5%

BUF: 54.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.36

BUF: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

BUF

D. Levi

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	27	24	3	88.9%	2.22	0	-0.78
BUF	D. Levi	41	36	5	87.8%	5.23	4	0.23

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TOR at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	BUF 3 - 2 TOR	BUF	BUF
2026-01-27	TOR 4 - 7 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-25	TOR 4 - 3 BUF	TOR	TOR
2025-10-24	BUF 5 - 3 TOR	BUF	BUF
2025-04-15	BUF 0 - 4 TOR	TOR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	0	1.47
1	BUF	20	0	1.04
2	TOR	16	0	1.14
2	BUF	17	0	0.80
3	TOR	26	4	2.62
3	BUF	9	0	0.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2