Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-12-15 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 57.7%

VGK: 42.3%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.35

VGK: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	27	24	3	88.9%	1.64	0	-1.36
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	22	20	2	90.9%	2.20	1	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs VGK: 4-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	MIN 4 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2026-03-06	VGK 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-12-29	VGK 2 - 5 MIN	MIN	VGK
2025-11-16	MIN 3 - 2 VGK	MIN	VGK
2025-05-01	MIN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	1	1.13
1	VGK	20	0	0.85
2	MIN	9	0	0.61
2	VGK	7	0	0.36
3	MIN	11	0	0.47
3	VGK	11	0	0.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8