Washington Capitals at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-16 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

DAL: 55.5%

WSH: 44.5%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.24

WSH: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	25	1	96.2%	2.74	0	1.74
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	24	21	3	87.5%	2.98	4	-0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs WSH: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	WSH 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	WSH
2025-10-28	DAL 1 - 0 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-12-16	DAL 3 - 1 WSH	DAL	DAL
2024-10-17	WSH 3 - 2 DAL	WSH	WSH
2024-01-27	DAL 5 - 4 WSH	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	10	1	0.64
1	WSH	9	0	0.57
2	DAL	10	1	0.94
2	WSH	20	0	1.33
3	DAL	12	2	1.41
3	WSH	15	0	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 1 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0