Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 46.2%

BUF: 53.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.92

BUF: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	1	1.25
1	BUF	7	1	0.66
2	MTL	13	1	1.31
2	BUF	17	0	1.09
3	MTL	8	0	0.44
3	BUF	12	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0