Los Angeles Kings at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 44.6%

LAK: 55.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.09

LAK: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	29	2	93.5%	3.04	3	1.04
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	31	28	3	90.3%	2.71	1	-0.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PIT at home vs LAK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-09	PIT 2 - 3 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-10-16	LAK 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	LAK
2025-01-20	LAK 1 - 5 PIT	PIT	LAK
2024-12-17	PIT 3 - 2 LAK	PIT	LAK
2024-02-18	PIT 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	0.81
1	LAK	20	1	1.22
2	PIT	12	0	0.78
2	LAK	14	0	0.68
3	PIT	13	1	1.05
3	LAK	14	2	0.99
4	PIT	1	0	0.07
4	LAK	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3