Washington Capitals at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CHI: 52.4%

WSH: 47.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.08

WSH: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	22	20	2	90.9%	2.24	1	0.24
WSH	Logan Thompson	23	20	3	87.0%	1.60	1	-1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CHI at home vs WSH: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-09	CHI 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-03	WSH 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	WSH
2025-04-04	WSH 5 - 3 CHI	WSH	WSH
2024-12-17	CHI 3 - 2 WSH	CHI	CHI
2024-03-09	WSH 4 - 1 CHI	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	14	0	0.46
1	WSH	7	0	0.50
2	CHI	12	1	0.80
2	WSH	9	1	0.81
3	CHI	9	0	0.34
3	WSH	18	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2