Boston Bruins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-17 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 57.9%

BOS: 42.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.39

BOS: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	35	31	4	88.6%	3.68	2	-0.32
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	20	3	87.0%	1.83	0	-1.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs BOS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-08	BOS 4 - 1 CGY	BOS	BOS
2025-12-29	CGY 2 - 1 BOS	CGY	CGY
2024-12-17	CGY 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	CGY
2024-11-07	BOS 4 - 3 CGY	BOS	BOS
2024-02-22	CGY 3 - 2 BOS	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	16	0	0.67
1	BOS	5	0	0.20
2	CGY	13	0	0.77
2	BOS	19	0	1.39
3	CGY	14	0	0.37
3	BOS	21	2	1.54
4	CGY	1	0	0.02
4	BOS	5	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0