Philadelphia Flyers at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 46.8%

PHI: 53.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.65

PHI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 50%

Over 6.5: 38%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	19	15	4	78.9%	2.11	0	-1.89
PHI	Samuel Ersson	24	18	6	75.0%	3.81	3	-2.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	DET 6 - 3 PHI	DET	PHI
2026-04-02	PHI 2 - 4 DET	DET	PHI
2026-03-28	DET 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-01-21	PHI 2 - 1 DET	PHI	PHI
2024-12-18	DET 6 - 4 PHI	DET	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.47
1	PHI	5	0	0.44
2	DET	12	0	1.00
2	PHI	10	0	0.61
3	DET	7	2	1.33
3	PHI	18	0	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 6 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9