Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 60.0%

TOR: 40.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.46

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	19	14	5	73.7%	2.90	3	-2.10
TOR	Joseph Woll	39	36	3	92.3%	2.87	1	-0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	1	1.51
1	TOR	6	0	0.20
2	DAL	12	0	0.71
2	TOR	12	2	1.31
3	DAL	17	0	0.65
3	TOR	7	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8