Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 61.3%

TOR: 38.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 4.62

TOR: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	1	1.51
1	TOR	6	0	0.20
2	DAL	12	0	0.71
2	TOR	12	2	1.31
3	DAL	17	0	0.65
3	TOR	7	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.6 - 3.0