St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

TBL: 70.4%

STL: 29.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.55

STL: 2.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	31	1	96.9%	2.32	0	1.32
STL	Jordan Binnington	18	15	3	83.3%	3.40	2	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs STL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	1.28
1	STL	14	0	0.94
2	TBL	10	0	1.04
2	STL	16	0	0.90
3	TBL	8	1	1.09
3	STL	14	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.5