St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

TBL: 68.8%

STL: 31.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.49

STL: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs STL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	1	1.28
1	STL	14	0	0.94
2	TBL	10	0	1.04
2	STL	16	0	0.90
3	TBL	8	1	1.09
3	STL	14	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 1 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7