New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 43.3%

NJD: 56.7%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.06

NJD: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	42	40	2	95.2%	5.05	4	3.05
NJD	Jake Allen	20	16	4	80.0%	2.69	3	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CBJ at home vs NJD: 1-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-03	NJD 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	NJD
2025-12-31	CBJ 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	CBJ
2025-12-01	NJD 3 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	NJD
2025-10-13	CBJ 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	CBJ
2025-03-17	CBJ 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	12	1	0.94
1	NJD	16	0	0.77
2	CBJ	14	0	0.84
2	NJD	22	1	1.71
3	CBJ	7	2	0.91
3	NJD	31	3	2.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4