Pittsburgh Penguins at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

NSH: 52.6%

PIT: 47.4%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.11

PIT: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	20	15	5	75.0%	1.49	1	-3.51
PIT	Tristan Jarry	26	22	4	84.6%	3.33	2	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NSH at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-16	PIT 4 - 0 NSH	PIT	PIT
2025-11-14	NSH 2 - 1 PIT	NSH	NSH
2025-02-01	PIT 3 - 0 NSH	PIT	PIT
2024-12-19	NSH 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	NSH
2024-04-15	PIT 4 - 2 NSH	PIT	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	14	2	1.57
1	PIT	11	1	0.56
2	NSH	17	0	1.15
2	PIT	6	0	0.38
3	NSH	12	0	0.61
3	PIT	11	0	0.44
4	NSH	0	0	0.00
4	PIT	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Nashville Predators 4 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0