Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2024-12-19 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

CGY: 36.9%

OTT: 63.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.99

OTT: 3.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	29	26	3	89.7%	2.44	1	-0.56
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	30	2	93.8%	3.14	1	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • CGY at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	CGY 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-10-30	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-12-19	CGY 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-25	OTT 4 - 3 CGY	OTT	OTT
2024-01-09	CGY 6 - 3 OTT	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.07
1	OTT	13	0	0.67
2	CGY	14	0	0.65
2	OTT	16	0	0.96
3	CGY	22	1	1.25
3	OTT	11	0	0.42
4	CGY	1	0	0.17
4	OTT	3	1	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4