Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2024-12-19 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 56.4%
COL: 43.6%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.78
COL: 3.23
Total Goals
Median: 5.8
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | SJS | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.908 | — |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • SJS at home vs COL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | COL 4 - 2 SJS | COL | COL |
| 2025-11-26 | COL 6 - 0 SJS | COL | COL |
| 2025-11-01 | SJS 3 - 2 COL | SJS | SJS |
| 2025-03-06 | COL 7 - 3 SJS | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-19 | SJS 2 - 4 COL | COL | SJS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:40 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 04:26 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 09:29 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 08:26 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 13:06 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:58 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.8 - 3.2