Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

WSH: 51.4%

CAR: 48.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.28

CAR: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	25	24	1	96.0%	3.20	1	2.20
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	22	19	3	86.4%	2.75	3	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • WSH at home vs CAR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	13	1	0.80
1	CAR	10	0	0.37
2	WSH	9	0	0.59
2	CAR	21	1	1.51
3	WSH	10	2	1.35
3	CAR	18	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9