New York Rangers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-20 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 55.7%

NYR: 44.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.54

NYR: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	30	27	3	90.0%	3.30	2	0.30
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	42	41	1	97.6%	5.03	4	4.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	DAL
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	3	1.43
1	NYR	16	0	0.86
2	DAL	24	0	1.94
2	NYR	15	1	1.61
3	DAL	23	1	1.65
3	NYR	7	1	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 3 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7