New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 37.1%

NYI: 62.9%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.01

NYI: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	28	6	82.4%	3.57	2	-2.43
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	26	3	89.7%	3.01	4	0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NYI
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	8	0	0.34
1	NYI	14	0	1.12
2	TOR	12	2	1.02
2	NYI	20	0	0.87
3	TOR	20	2	1.65
3	NYI	19	2	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.4