New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-21 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 42.3%
NYI: 57.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.94
NYI: 3.74
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.881 | 0.907 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NYI 5 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-03-17 | TOR 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:47 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 04:48 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 12:29 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 16:08 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 05:43 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:23 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:36 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 13:49 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:40 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.9 - 3.7
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