Pittsburgh Penguins at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

NJD: 61.3%

PIT: 38.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.84

PIT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	12	12	0	100.0%	1.70	2	1.70
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	24	3	88.9%	3.28	2	0.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • NJD at home vs PIT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NJD 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-02-26	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2026-01-08	PIT 4 - 1 NJD	PIT	PIT
2025-11-08	NJD 2 - 1 PIT	NJD	NJD
2025-04-11	NJD 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	0	0.43
1	PIT	8	0	0.38
2	NJD	22	1	1.24
2	PIT	8	1	0.77
3	NJD	21	1	1.61
3	PIT	13	1	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 3 - 0 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.8 - 2.8