Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Win Probability

PHI: 60.2%

CBJ: 39.8%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.47

CBJ: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	21	4	84.0%	2.10	0	-1.90
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	30	25	5	83.3%	3.27	2	-1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs CBJ: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	0.79
1	CBJ	9	0	0.51
2	PHI	13	0	0.81
2	CBJ	12	0	0.63
3	PHI	18	1	1.47
3	CBJ	10	0	0.66
4	PHI	2	0	0.21
4	CBJ	2	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0