Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-12-21 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Win Probability

VGK: 51.1%

SEA: 48.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.36

SEA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	23	21	2	91.3%	2.55	1	0.55
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	34	28	6	82.4%	4.12	4	-1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • VGK at home vs SEA: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	SEA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	0	0.76
1	SEA	15	0	0.97
2	VGK	15	1	1.01
2	SEA	11	0	0.33
3	VGK	19	3	2.34
3	SEA	15	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 2 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1