Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2024-12-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

EDM: 56.6%

OTT: 43.4%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

OTT: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	21	20	1	95.2%	1.65	1	0.65
OTT	Linus Ullmark	21	18	3	85.7%	3.08	4	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	EDM 5 - 4 OTT	EDM	EDM
2025-10-21	OTT 2 - 3 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-12-22	EDM 3 - 1 OTT	EDM	EDM
2024-11-19	OTT 2 - 5 EDM	EDM	OTT
2024-03-24	OTT 5 - 3 EDM	OTT	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	9	1	0.61
1	OTT	11	0	0.39
2	EDM	14	2	1.71
2	OTT	10	1	0.72
3	EDM	10	1	0.76
3	OTT	14	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 1 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8