Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-23 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 58.3%
WPG: 41.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.11
WPG: 2.73
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | TOR | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.765 | 0.892 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WPG 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2026-01-01 | TOR 6 - 5 WPG | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-23 | TOR 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | TOR |
| 2024-10-28 | WPG 4 - 6 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2024-01-27 | WPG 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:04 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 01:16 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 05:25 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 03:27 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 11:57 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 13:42 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 19:39 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.1 - 2.7