Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2024-12-23 • Amerant Bank Arena
Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 57.0%
TBL: 43.0%
Expected Goals
FLA: 2.93
TBL: 2.82
Total Goals
Median: 4.9
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 27%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 27-23-1 | 0.877 SV% | 3.07 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | FLA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.952 |
| GAA | 2.80 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | TBL 6 - 1 FLA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-27 | FLA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-15 | TBL 2 - 5 FLA | FLA | TBL |
| 2025-11-15 | FLA 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-04-30 | TBL 3 - 6 FLA | FLA | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:20 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 16:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 14:18 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 2.8
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