Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 52.1%

PHI: 47.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.48

PHI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	24	3	88.9%	2.07	1	-0.93
PHI	Samuel Ersson	22	15	7	68.2%	3.10	2	-3.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	14	1	1.18
1	PHI	10	0	0.43
2	PIT	11	0	0.47
2	PHI	16	1	1.12
3	PIT	10	1	1.45
3	PHI	10	0	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 7 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1