Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2024-12-23 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 1 - 7 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 57.0%
BUF: 43.0%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.60
BUF: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 8.6
Over 5.5: 87%
Over 6.5: 75%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | NYI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.967 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUF 4 - 3 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 16:49 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 06:53 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 15:45 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 18:21 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 10:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 15:49 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 1 - 7 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.6 - 3.2
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