Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2024-12-23 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 54.5%

BUF: 45.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.49

BUF: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	18	7	72.0%	2.60	2	-4.40
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	27	1	96.4%	2.14	0	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	9	0	0.28
1	BUF	12	0	0.73
2	NYI	16	0	0.81
2	BUF	17	1	1.11
3	NYI	23	0	1.04
3	BUF	7	1	0.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2