Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

DET: 50.5%

TOR: 49.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.01

TOR: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	23	18	5	78.3%	3.11	3	-1.89
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	23	2	92.0%	2.90	2	0.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	19	1	1.27
1	TOR	14	2	1.70
2	DET	11	0	0.42
2	TOR	12	1	1.09
3	DET	14	1	1.20
3	TOR	5	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2