Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2024-12-27 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 53.7%
TOR: 46.3%
Expected Goals
DET: 2.35
TOR: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | DET | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.968 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • DET at home vs TOR: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | TOR 1 - 2 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-12-28 | DET 3 - 2 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-10-13 | TOR 2 - 3 DET | DET | TOR |
| 2025-10-11 | DET 6 - 3 TOR | DET | DET |
| 2025-04-17 | TOR 4 - 3 DET | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:29 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 08:16 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:28 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 16:23 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:58 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 08:17 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:08 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.3 - 3.3