Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2024-12-27 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 60.6%
MIN: 39.4%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.41
MIN: 2.41
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
| Stat | DAL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.895 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.930 | 0.878 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DAL at home vs MIN: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | MIN 5 - 2 DAL | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-10-14 | DAL 5 - 2 MIN | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-04-06 | MIN 3 - 2 DAL | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-03-24 | DAL 3 - 0 MIN | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-12-27 | DAL 2 - 3 MIN | MIN | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:52 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:08 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:36 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 11:33 | DAL | Goal |
| 4 | 00:35 | MIN | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.4 - 2.4