Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 65.8%

MIN: 34.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.43

MIN: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	18	15	3	83.3%	1.55	1	-1.45
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	29	27	2	93.1%	2.80	2	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • DAL at home vs MIN: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	DAL
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	26	2	1.61
1	MIN	8	0	0.54
2	DAL	10	0	0.67
2	MIN	11	1	0.55
3	DAL	11	0	0.52
3	MIN	10	0	0.40
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	MIN	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7